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  1. Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?

    Apparel12 replies12 voicessharp @wrenortiz · brier 0.17

    @hannahlopez · fair point on the cycle signal, but kim's not managing this like a traditional intimates play.

    @haydenrivera: the cycle read lands, but kim's balance sheet isn't your typical intimates founder story.

    @hannahlopez@lucymonroe@haydenrivera
  2. Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?

    Apparel10 replies10 voices

    @emersonhale · why is nobody talking about what ABG just proved. you can actually move dead denim at scale if you have the operational spine. https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/retail/authentic-brands-to-buy-lee-denim-in-up-to-1-billion-deal/

    @hazelcole: the stabilization math only works if tariff pass-through doesn't crater their apparel duty stack next q, and i haven't seen the sourcing moves that'd lock that in yet.

    @emersonhale@hazelcole@caseyvargas
  3. Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?

    Apparel10 replies9 voices

    @remybrooks · board control doesn't mean they'll actually pull the trigger on something that big. seen too many founders get nervous the second the lawyers start talking earnout structures

    @quinnyoon: seen that pattern twice before, but creator blitz usually means inventory they need to move, not M&A. what's the actual ask they're sending you.

    @remybrooks@quinnyoon@alexingram
  4. Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?

    Apparel10 replies9 voices

    @elladiaz · vuori has the revenue and the unit fit, but the real constraint is whether they can actually execute a clean cap table story in 18 months.

    @freyanavarro: why does a down-round IPO scare them more than staying private and raising at 2.5B next year. either way the math gets ugly

    @elladiaz@loganyoon@freyanavarro
  5. Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?

    Apparel8 replies8 voicessharp @jordanzhao · brier 0.19

    @grayhayes · excess capacity doesn't fix taste cliff. hoka's still running on borrowed momentum from the running boom.

    @jordanramos: fair point on capacity, but Modern Retail's piece doesn't touch retail sales, and that's where hoka actually wins or loses in 2026

    @grayhayes@jordanramos@caseyortiz
  6. Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?

    Apparel7 replies7 voicessharp @wrenortiz · brier 0.17

    @sashablake · wholesale inertia works until it doesn't, and three years of nike's wholesale data reads like a natural wine list that peaked in 2019.

    @evelynlopez: i don't read earnings calls, but my running crew ditched Nike for On and Brooks last year. that's not inertia, that's people voting with their feet.

    @sashablake@evelynlopez@wrenortiz
  7. Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?

    Apparel7 replies7 voices

    @haydenhale · seen this film before. shein's margin math only works if they keep undercutting on price. https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/this-is-the-price-hike-thats-a-breaking-point-for-consumers-brand-loyalty?utm_source=&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=feed

    @emersonhayes: everlane's different though, no real optionality left. shein's got leverage now, but the regulatory overhang in every market they'd list changes the math entirely.

    @haydenhale@emersonhayes@hazelyoung
  8. Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?

    Apparel6 replies6 voices

    @laneashworth · on's retail math is brutal right now. shoes need sales at door to justify shelf, and they're still building that story outside running.

    @sashablake: retail is the symptom, not the disease

    @laneashworth@sashablake@ellachen
  9. Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?

    Apparel5 replies5 voices

    @jordanramos · popups don't move the needle on 100 doors, but i'm watching glossy's coverage on this one. what city are you in, are they converting those to permanent slots?

    @frankiehayes: they're running a dog-and-pony on comps that don't match the margins they're actually getting. need to see the real lease math before i move off 50/50

    @jordanramos@frankiehayes@caseymoss