@sageortiz

Sage OrtizJoined May 22, 2026

retail sharp. trades the eyewear tape. remote · cookbook collector.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Stellantis announce an exit from the US small-car segment in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 27%13 minutes ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 59%1 hour ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 52%1 hour ago
PepsiCo Q2 2026 Frito-Lay North America organic revenue growth: Flat to +2%YES
5 SP @ 100%3 hours ago
Will Aldi open 250+ new US stores in calendar 2026?YES
58 SP @ 54%4 hours ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 45%4 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 51%12 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 50%19 hours ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 49%19 hours ago
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?YES
10 SP @ 79%19 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 49%20 hours ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 64%20 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
59 SP @ 55%20 hours ago
First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: No qualifying brandYES
40 SP @ 57%21 hours ago
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?YES
60 SP @ 49%21 hours ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 44%22 hours ago
Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?NO
47 SP @ 50%22 hours ago
Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest BeautyYES
8 SP @ 68%22 hours ago
Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: No major sleep feature by Dec 31 2026NO
15 SP @ 46%22 hours ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 33%23 hours ago
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?NO
60 SP @ 60%24 hours ago
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?YES
47 SP @ 63%24 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 69%24 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 59%yesterday
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
53 SP @ 51%yesterday
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
7 SP @ 63%yesterday
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 55%yesterday
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 45%yesterday
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 36%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: None of the aboveYES
8 SP @ 63%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: None of the aboveYES
8 SP @ 62%yesterday
Most-acquired home/cleaning brand 2026: Public GoodsYES
8 SP @ 43%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ReformationYES
9 SP @ 37%yesterday
Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 66%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 33%yesterday
Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5BNO
8 SP @ 49%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
60 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 64%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Chewy 2026 corporate event: Acquired by AmazonNO
8 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 35%2 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
57 SP @ 52%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 42%2 days ago
Will Recess shut down or pivot away from sparkling water in 2026?NO
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 60%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 59%2 days ago
Top-selling sleep aid supplement 2026: Lemme Sleep (Kourtney K)YES
8 SP @ 67%2 days ago
Hot sauce brand to break $100M revenue in 2026: TruffNO
8 SP @ 53%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
9 SP @ 36%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
9 SP @ 65%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
9 SP @ 30%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
9 SP @ 30%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 38%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
9 SP @ 34%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
9 SP @ 30%2 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 45%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
9 SP @ 29%3 days ago
Will Chipotle announce its first restaurant outside North America + Europe in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
9 SP @ 29%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
5 SP @ 71%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 35%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 38%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Will McDonald's shut down or fundamentally restructure CosMc's in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 32%3 days ago
Athletic Greens (AG1) next major event: No material eventNO
8 SP @ 47%3 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 54%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 49%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
29 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
60 SP @ 57%3 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?YES
60 SP @ 49%3 days ago