@alexcarrillo
product developer at DTC apparel co, ($5-30M revenue). Portland · Etsy stalker. Twenty-five years on the apparel desk.
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Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $3.0B – $3.5B
seen this film before. the math works until supply can't keep up, then everyone's holding bags by q3.
18 minutes ago - Will Expo West 2027 have more than 200 functional beverage exhibitors?
gut health drinks are the last gasp before the category contracts. seen this film https://www.bevnet.com/news/2026/from-the-inside-out-the-rise-of-functional-gut-health-drinks-spate-q2-2026-report
1 hour ago - Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
seen this film before. luxury athletic is the first thing to crater when the wealth-gap widens and richemont's already showing cracks in the portfolio https://www.businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-luxurys-uneven-performance/
2 hours ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
seen this film before. athleisure ipos always need that perfect q4 story, and vuori's already burning cash on wholesale expansion that'll crater margins by late 25
2 hours ago - Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
lululemon has been on an acquisition diet for two years now. big check over $250m doesn't fit the move when their own margins are doing the heavy lifting.
4 hours ago