@alexcarrillo

Alex CarrilloJoined May 22, 2026

product developer at DTC apparel co, ($5-30M revenue). Portland · Etsy stalker. Twenty-five years on the apparel desk.

Calibration

Brier · lower is better

Win rate

No decided markets yet

Markets resolved

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

0 SP

Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.

Calibration

0 / 5 resolved trades

Need 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.

Recent trades

Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
37 SP @ 52%2 minutes ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
29 SP @ 53%27 minutes ago
Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?NO
34 SP @ 46%54 minutes ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
49 SP @ 47%2 hours ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?YES
46 SP @ 47%4 hours ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
44 SP @ 39%5 hours ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
36 SP @ 37%10 hours ago
Will Athletic Brewing double its US distribution footprint in 2026?NO
52 SP @ 33%14 hours ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
41 SP @ 56%15 hours ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
44 SP @ 46%16 hours ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?NO
58 SP @ 47%17 hours ago
First GLP-1 subscription brand to publicly report 1M active subscribers in 2026: No brand discloses by Dec 31 2026NO
40 SP @ 47%21 hours ago
Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?NO
48 SP @ 44%21 hours ago
Will KeHE add 20+ new functional beverage SKUs to its natural set in 2026?YES
8 SP @ 42%22 hours ago
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?YES
8 SP @ 44%22 hours ago
Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?NO
58 SP @ 49%23 hours ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
23 SP @ 64%24 hours ago
Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?YES
39 SP @ 51%24 hours ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
39 SP @ 40%yesterday
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 37%yesterday
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?NO
8 SP @ 46%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ReformationYES
8 SP @ 58%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ReformationNO
8 SP @ 56%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 42%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: None of the aboveNO
8 SP @ 53%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: None of the aboveNO
8 SP @ 54%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ReformationYES
8 SP @ 56%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
5 SP @ 36%yesterday
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
48 SP @ 53%yesterday
Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Anheuser-Busch InBevNO
8 SP @ 40%yesterday
Biggest CPG SPAC of 2026: Athletic Brewing SPACNO
9 SP @ 62%yesterday
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 59%yesterday
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
10 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 51%2 days ago
Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?NO
9 SP @ 24%2 days ago
Generic GLP-1 launch in US: 2027 or laterNO
8 SP @ 39%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
7 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Will Rivian begin delivering the R2 to customers in 2026?NO
48 SP @ 57%2 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
51 SP @ 56%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxYES
8 SP @ 44%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 49%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 37%2 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
28 SP @ 48%2 days ago
Will Trader Joe's open its first store in a new US state in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 55%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?NO
56 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 31%2 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
53 SP @ 40%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 43%2 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
28 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 47%2 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsNO
8 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
16 SP @ 50%2 days ago
Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?NO
54 SP @ 43%3 days ago
First snack brand to break $500M retail in 2026: Belgian BoysYES
8 SP @ 68%3 days ago
Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?NO
60 SP @ 43%3 days ago
CBD sleep gummy market leader 2026: KanibiNO
8 SP @ 56%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 48%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 51%3 days ago
Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?NO
36 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?NO
9 SP @ 29%3 days ago
Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?NO
24 SP @ 62%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: AllbirdsYES
8 SP @ 45%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeYES
8 SP @ 59%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: BirchboxNO
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago
Next DTC apparel casualty in 2026: ParadeNO
8 SP @ 55%3 days ago