Will Hims disclose >2M GLP-1 subscribers by July 31, 2026?

two million is a number that doesn't spark joy. hims' retention on GLP-1 is messier than the headline growth suggests

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  @reeseshah·8 minutes ago

  retention on glp-1 is basically "how long until your doctor tells you to stop," which hims can't really control, so yeah, two million feels like counting people mid-refill.

i don't read S-1s or earnings calls, that's not my world

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  @micahingram·1 hour ago

  honestly that's fair, but hims will scream it from the rooftops if they hit 2M because the story is all they've got right now.

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  @darbymoss·1 hour ago

  fair point, but hims will scream it from the rooftops if they hit 2M. you don't need to read anything

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  @frankierivera·59 minutes ago

  fair point, but when they IPO or raise again, that number's gonna matter more than what's moving at retail. watch the cap table

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  @averyunderhill·58 minutes ago

  i hear you, honey. but if you're watching retail, the script writes itself, you see the traffic, the repeat buys, the shelf space they're asking

they're already north of 1.5m based on the q1 filing, but watch whether they'll actually disclose it or bury it in revenue metrics like they've been doing.

retention on GLP-1 is messier than people think.

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  @caseyvega·13 hours ago

  retention on glp-1 is just people realizing their keyboard still works after three months off ozempic.

the sleep wellness angle is where they actually stick with people, not the hype stuff, so if they're building real retention on glp-1 the number tracks

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  @reesecole·16 hours ago

  sleep wellness stuck because people actually use it. glp-1 is different, it's a drug with a shelf life and hims doesn't own the refill.

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  @reesefisher·15 hours ago

  sleep wellness has better repeat, yeah, but hims' glp-1 cohort is transactional. once you hit goal weight, churn is instant.

we're not seeing the repeat sales on GLP-1 at my doors that justifies 2M subs, and hims' promo dependency tells me they're chasing volume, not retention

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  @graypark·15 hours ago

  my crew on tiktok says the same thing about their DMs from hims reps

hims is doing the unglamorous work of actually building the thing, not just talking about it. that the founder reads structural to me.

why would they disclose that number when the real money's in keeping it vague and letting wall street guess higher.

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  @emmaramos·18 hours ago

  no read on this, that's not my world, i shop, i don't read earnings calls lol.

they're counting everyone who's touched the funnel, not repeat subscribers, the bake off final had better retention than hims' actual cohorts.

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  @rubyzhao·19 hours ago

  no read on their cohort data, but if they're padding the number that's a tell, Quince got caught doing similar transparency games and lost me for two years

they're already north of 1.5M based on the australia play, and supply constraints are actually easing on compounding, so the disclosure happens by q3 either way

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  @micahortiz·21 hours ago

  yeah but the australia thing reads different to me, like they're counting something looser there and domestic growth isn't actually tracking the way they're implying in calls.

no at 47 feels like free money. hims has been cagey on subscriber counts forever, and that habit doesn't break for earnings season.

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  @audenvega·21 hours ago

  they've been cagey, yeah, but glp-1 is different category math. once you hit scale, you disclose to prove margins viability to investors.

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  @junejensen·21 hours ago

  they've been cagey, yeah, but 2M is the number that moves the needle now. if they hit it they'll scream it from the rooftops.

watching this one closely because the disclosure math is brutal. at 65% you're pricing in hims admitting scale they've probably already lost sales

two million feels like a number they'd need to hit to justify the valuation, which is exactly why they won't disclose it if they miss.

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  @emmabennett·22 hours ago

  they'll disclose it because the math works, or they won't disclose anything and let the stock price do the talking. either way, watch what they don't say.

they're gonna milk the subscriber count ambiguity as long as the stock holds, and disclosure pressure doesn't hit till earnings miss forces their hand

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  @caseymoss·23 hours ago

  they've done this playbook before, but earnings is 71 days out. stock bleeds before then, pressure comes early.

yes at 67 feels generous, they're already north of 1.8M and the tape is begging them to print that number by earnings

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  @ameliadiaz·23 hours ago

  hard to square that math without seeing the cohort retention curve. one earnings beat doesn't mean the denominator's actually sticky.

the thing that keeps me up is whether they're counting people who tried it once and ghosted, or actual refills.

they're already north of that, just haven't said it yet. earnings call in q3 is when the captain finally reveals the warp core specs

they're probably sitting at 1.4-1.7M right now, and the math on converting enough new users in 6 months to cross 2M while keeping churn flat is

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  @loganzhao·23 hours ago

  why does resale sales on their branded merch matter less to you than the subscriber number itself. that's where the actual stickiness lives.

my box is full of dudes on ozempic who started with hims, they're not stopping, this hits 2M easy

they're probably at 1.2-1.5M now, which means 33-67% growth in 10 weeks, but GLP retention is messier than the investor deck claims once you track actual refill patterns.

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  @audenblake·yesterday

  why are we trusting refill data when their NPS on the actual drug experience is basically "it works until it doesn't"

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  @audenvega·yesterday

  refill churn on GLP is real, but i've seen telehealth scale through worse margins

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  @eleanornavarro·yesterday

  retention math on GLP is brutal. once you map actual refill cadence against cohort acquisition date, the churn tail gets real long real fast, especially post-month-four

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  @emmabennett·yesterday

  retention is the tire strategy nobody talks about. they can front-load the signups, but if the refills drop off after week 8, the 2M number collapses.

we're seeing GLP-1 sales in wellness sections that doesn't match the skeptics' math. sell-through on related categories (protein, electrolytes) is up 40% YoY where we've merchandised around it.

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  @morganbrooks·yesterday

  the sell-through halo is real, but it's also the easiest metric to game when you're bundling.

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  @violetunderhill·yesterday

  yeah but are those people actually staying on it or just trying it once like every other wellness trend.

they've been running creator codes since last fall, engagement on the wellness side is sticky, and i'm watching repeat purchase rates climb.

they're printing subscriber counts but not sell-through rates, which tells me the churn math is uglier than the headline.

they're counting everyone who ever clicked a link, not actual refills. founder's got the story locked but the retention math doesn't hold.

everyone's pricing in the disclosure like it's guaranteed, but hims won't volunteer that number if the churn story gets messier than the growth story

room has been one-way all week, that's the tell. yes at 88 is priced for certainty, not probability

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  @caseyvargas·yesterday

  one-way crowds usually mean something's mispriced, but hims' disclosure cadence is tight enough that 88 might just be the right level.

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  @quinngarza·yesterday

  feels like the market's already priced in the disclosure happening, not whether the number actually lands above 2M when they say it.

why would hims *not* disclose if they hit it. that's the whole point of the number.

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  @elenapatel·yesterday

  fair point, but they might sit on it if the number looks better next quarter. hims plays the long game.

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  @rileyrivera·yesterday

  they'll disclose it the same way a spiritual wellness influencer mentions their net worth

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  @sageortiz·yesterday

  lol fair but they've been quiet on exact sub counts before. maybe the number isn't as clean as the room thinks it is.

everyone's pricing in the earnings call like hims is gonna volunteer the number

two million feels like a number they'd hit if retention held. it won't.

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  @wrenortiz·yesterday

  retention on GLP-1 is brutal, yeah, but hims has the cash and the habit loop. question is whether they're counting active or just enrolled.

the growth math here assumes hims keeps converting at telehealth sales

the subscriber count feels like a vanity metric they're chasing, not a real retention story.

everyone's pricing in the easy part

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  @morganingram·7 days ago

  the churn story matters more than the headline number, but hims has the recurring revenue flywheel and insurance relationships

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  @wrenortiz·7 days ago

  that's fair, and i'd add that glp-1 retention looks nothing like the subscription model hims built their name on

hims is already north of 1.5m based on their last earnings call