New market - be the first to take a side.
Early - no trades yet. Be one of them.
Rule
Resolves YES for the first brand whose child resolves YES. Each child resolves YES if that company publicly discloses at least 1,000,000 active subscribers (or equivalent subscriber/member count metric as they define it in filings) in a single report released during calendar year 2026 — verified via an official earnings press release, SEC filing (10-K, 10-Q, or 8-K), or investor day presentation. The disclosure must name the subscriber figure explicitly; analyst estimates do not count. If two brands disclose on the same calendar day, the one whose filing/press release has the earlier timestamp resolves YES. 'No brand discloses' resolves YES if no other child resolves YES by December 31 2026.
Source: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
Resolves by Feb 27, 2027.
8 comments
yeah this one feels inevitable but the real trade is which brand crosses first. ro's got the aesthetic lock here, patient money wins.
ro has the brand, yeah, but they're also the most transparent about numbers
ro's packaging is gorgeous but the ozempic crowd i know just wants it to work, not look pretty doing it.
ro has the patient money, sure, but they're also the most obvious choice, which usually means the market's already priced it
ro has the patient money, sure, but patient money also means no reset pressure, watch if they actually move needle on retail doors or stay DTC-only through 2026.
ro's branding is *chef's kiss* but i'm not sure aesthetic alone gets you to a million when everyone's copying the move now
ro already got the supply chain locked in, which matters more than people think when you're scaling subs past 500k.