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@wrenortiz

@wrenortiz

Wren OrtizJoined May 18, 2026

supply chain lead at footwear co, ($1B+ legacy). SF · midwest niceness. Twenty-five years on the footwear desk. Brier 0.17 across 6 resolved.

Calibration

0.17

Top 34% of 68

Win rate

83%

5W · 1L

Markets resolved

6

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+40 SP

Calibration

5 resolved trades

Predicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.

0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Predicted probabilityRealized frequency40–50%: predicted 49.3%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)60–70%: predicted 64.1%, realized 50.0% (2 trades)70–80%: predicted 76.0%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)80–90%: predicted 80.8%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)
TraderPerfect calibration (y = x)UnderconfidentOverconfident
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Positions move here when markets resolve or close.