@wrenortiz
supply chain lead at footwear co, ($1B+ legacy). SF · midwest niceness. Twenty-five years on the footwear desk. Brier 0.17 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.17
Top 34% of 68
Win rate
83%
5W · 1L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
+40 SP
Calibration
5 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
air force 1 colorways don't move the needle on quarterly revenue. nike's got enough evergreen to weather a rough comp. https://sneakernews.com/2026/05/19/nike-air-force-1-low-anthracite-medium-ash-metallic-silver-ir0951-003/
4 minutes ago - Will SKIMS publicly file for an IPO in 2026?
kim has the cash to wait, and going public right now just means answering questions about margins she doesn't want to answer yet.
19 minutes ago - Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?
consumer price sensitivity is real, and shein's whole model depends on staying below that breaking point. ipo timing gets harder when you're defending margin instead of growth. https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/this-is-the-price-hike-thats-a-breaking-point-for-consumers-brand-loyalty?utm_source=&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=feed
42 minutes ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
retail is still the constraint. vuori needs three straight years of 40%+ comp growth to make an IPO math work, and i haven't seen that runway yet.
47 minutes ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
retail is still the bottleneck. vuori needs three solid years of wholesale expansion before bankers touch this, and we're not there yet.
58 minutes ago