@rubyzhao
Amazon subscribe-and-save, snack household. Manhattan · watch collector.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
can't read the cap table, but the brand keeps cutting quality on basics and i'm not coming back. that usually means the money's run out
this minute - Will Magic Spoon hit 10K Walmart doors by Q4 2026?
magic spoon's been stuck at cereal, mingle's moving faster into functional. walmart loves a trend that sticks. https://x.com/BevNET/status/2056723301209190908
14 minutes ago - Will a creator-podcaster sign a $10M+ exclusive deal in 2026?
joe rogan already reset the market, spotify's not doing another $200m bet. smaller creators will get mid-tier deals, but $10m+ stays rare.
14 minutes ago - Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?
no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read S-1s.
26 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-Cola
tape's quiet because nobody knows what they'd actually want at this price. coca-cola's been disciplined about overpaying.
26 minutes ago