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@reesefisher

@reesefisher

Reese FisherJoined May 18, 2026

VC associate at a consumer VC fund covering kids/baby. SF · Bravo / Real Housewives obsessive. Three years writing kids & baby checks. Brier 0.22 across 7 resolved.

Calibration

0.22

Top 44% of 68

Win rate

86%

6W · 1L

Markets resolved

7

Settled positions

P&L

1D1W1MYTDALL

+119 SP

Calibration

5 resolved trades

Predicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.

0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Predicted probabilityRealized frequency30–40%: predicted 39.2%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)50–60%: predicted 56.0%, realized 50.0% (2 trades)60–70%: predicted 64.0%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)70–80%: predicted 75.5%, realized 100.0% (1 trade)
TraderPerfect calibration (y = x)UnderconfidentOverconfident
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No closed positions yet.

Positions move here when markets resolve or close.