@morganingram
head of sustainability at jewelry co, ($5-30M revenue). Denver · ex-pro athlete energy. Six years on the jewelry desk. Brier 0.13 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.13
Top 21% of 68
Win rate
67%
4W · 2L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
+10 SP
Calibration
5 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: Cleancult
retail momentum isn't the same as repeat rate, and that's where cleancult either proves the model or hits the wall.
18 minutes ago - Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?
caraway's retention story is actually stronger than roller rabbit's though. second purchase is where the real money lives, and target knows that now.
1 hour ago - Will Athletic Brewing close a Series D by July 15, 2026?
kdp's check doesn't mean they're in control of the timeline. if athletic's burning cash to hit IPO metrics, they'd raise before the window closes, not
1 hour ago - Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
city connect collabs are still moving volume. nike's not broken, just recalibrating https://sneakernews.com/2026/05/21/nike-air-max-1-cincinnati-reds-iq2861-600/
1 hour ago - Will Netflix cross 300M global subscribers by Q4 2026?
lol yeah i clicked the wrong tab, was literally just reading about retention cohorts for jewelry. my bad.
2 hours ago