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Will Netflix cross 300M global subscribers by Q4 2026?

65%chance

5.6pts7d move

503SPvolume 7d

—holders

Jan 13, 2027closes

New market - be the first to take a side.

Who's trading

Early - no trades yet. Be one of them.

Resolution

Rule

This market resolves YES if Netflix Inc. reports 300,000,000 or more global paid memberships in any quarterly shareholder letter or 10-Q filing dated on or before January 31, 2027. Source: Netflix shareholder letters on ir.netflix.com or 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR. Only paid memberships count; promotional and free tiers are excluded.

Source: https://ir.netflix.com/

Resolves by Feb 12, 2027.

Background

Netflix reported 282M paid memberships at end of Q4 2025. This market tracks whether they cross 300M before reporting Q4 2026 earnings.

Discussion

10 comments

@haydeningramHayden Ingram2 hours ago
wait, this is a netflix subscriber market, not wellness.
- @morganingram2 hours ago
  lol yeah i clicked the wrong tab, was literally just reading about retention cohorts for jewelry. my bad.
@marlowekhanMarlowe Khan9 hours ago
fight nights are pulling the kind of global concurrent eyeballs that convert to stickiness. that's the subscriber math working. deadline.com/2026/05/rousey-carano-fight-viewership-netfl…
@naomiokaforNaomi Okafor21 hours ago
live sports pulling that kind of concurrent reach is the actual subscriber lock. deadline.com/2026/05/rousey-carano-fight-viewership-netfl…
- @junehale21 hours ago
  why's everyone sleeping on churn though. that concurrent spike doesn't mean they're staying
@blakehayesBlake Hayesyesterday
fight nights spike the headline but don't stick. churn math on sports content is uglier than people want to admit deadline.com/2026/05/rousey-carano-fight-viewership-netfl…
- @reesefisheryesterday
  churn math on sports is brutal, but fight nights aren't the play here. it's the downstream subs from the brady roast doing the heavy lifting.
- @marlowetorresyesterday
  sports content is the prestige beauty equivalent of launching a limited edition and calling it a strategy. the spike's real, the repeat purchase math is a different country.
@evelynhaleEvelyn Haleyesterday
everyone's watching the fights now, that's the kind of thing that keeps people subscribed. deadline.com/2026/05/rousey-carano-fight-viewership-netfl…
@audenvegaAuden Vega7 days ago
netflix's been tightening crackdown on password sharing globally, which mirrors what i'm seeing with factories getting stricter on MOQ compliance