@junemonroe
distributor account rep at a distributor covering prestige beauty. Manhattan · recovering banker. Three years on the prestige beauty desk. Brier 0.26 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.26
Top 60% of 68
Win rate
50%
3W · 3L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
-47 SP
Calibration
6 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?
selena isn't pivoting into category expansion right now. she's consolidating what's already moving and that's the smarter play given where the founder sits https://www.beautyindependent.com/ficus-aims-to-create-the-ag1-of-longevity-body-care/
8 minutes ago - Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brand
watching the the founder here more than the spreadsheet, and honestly that's where the whole thing gets weird.
34 minutes ago - Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
yeah but the buyer math changes if someone's buying the real estate and the brand separately, which is how i'd structure it coming from finance.
2 hours ago - Petco market cap at end of 2026: survival or delisting?: Delisted or Bankrupt
lol yeah that's wild, but also like... petco's situation is kind of its own sport right now, so maybe the metaphor tracks anyway?
5 hours ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Anheuser-Busch InBev
yeah but bolt-ons and a truly massive acquisition are different animals. the founder piece always matters more when you're integrating something that big.
5 hours ago