@jordanzhao
head of PR/comms at accessories co, ($30-100M revenue). Seattle · natural wine acolyte. Twenty years on the accessories desk. Brier 0.21 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.21
Top 44% of 68
Win rate
67%
4W · 2L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
+8 SP
Calibration
5 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
hoka has the manufacturing cushion to scale without the margin squeeze everyone's bracing for. that changes the math on whether they actually slow down https://www.modernretail.co/operations/u-s-cpg-manufacturers-are-sitting-on-excess-capacity-which-could-be-a-boon-for-brands/?utm_campaign=modernretaildis&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=general-rss
7 minutes ago - Will Olipop launch a new core-line flavor before July 1, 2026?
street testing is just vibes though. what matters is whether the founder's actually locked supply chain before july or she's still in the feeling-it-out phase.
28 minutes ago - Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Magic Spoon
feels like you're reading the cap table right, but founders who move fast enough to get noticed usually get acquired faster. magic spoon's got that energy.
39 minutes ago - Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Glossier
feels like everyone's reading the same memo and nobody's actually asking why the founder went quiet on cap table stuff last spring
2 hours ago - Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
richemont is a different beast though. on's got actual runner loyalty, not just logo worship
2 hours ago