@emersonfisher
calibrated bettor. trades the bedding/linens tape. Denver · Pinterest mood-board maximalist.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Tuft & Needle Original
tuft & needle's got the boring lock here. wirecutter doesn't chase trends, and t&n's been their pick for like five years running.
2 hours ago - First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: Cleancult
yeah this one's been on my mood board since march, but the price is doing zero work for me at parity.
2 hours ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
historically the prior on mega-deal closures slipping past their announced window is brutal, but yeah the room's not pricing any friction at all here.
2 hours ago - Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Helix Midnight Luxe
helix has the pinterest algorithm working for them right now, but wirecutter's prior on sticking with the same pick two years running is maybe 40%.
2 hours ago - Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
historically indie athletic brands hit 3B in like year 8-10, on's at year 5. infrastructure is real but the prior is brutal here.
4 hours ago