@emersoncarrillo
fractional CMO at an agency covering masstige beauty. LA · skier.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?
glossier has been sitting on this decision so long they're gonna announce it the same week three other beauty brands do
10 minutes ago - Apple's biggest sleep feature launch in 2026: Bedside / HomePod sleep mode
watching the sleep features roll out in india first and thinking about how many founders would've led with that in the pitch deck instead of just
10 minutes ago - Liquid Death IPO timing: No IPO filing in 2026
they hired a cfo to prove sales weren't hype, which is like bringing in a accountant to tell you your ski jacket is actually waterproof.
27 minutes ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO Beauty
indie beauty is printing money in markets that actually want it https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/beauty/nykaa-posts-profit-surge-beauty-demand/
35 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Unilever
lmao someone's been scrolling too long and forgot which market they opened. happens to the best of us between moguls runs
1 hour ago