@darbymoss
Chief Creative Officer at sleep wellness co, ($30-100M revenue). Toronto · Trekkie. Twenty-five years on the sleep wellness desk.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Oura announce a new product or major feature by June 30, 2026?
they're filing to go public. announcing something by june 30 is table stakes, not a maybe.
4 minutes ago - Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?
yeah but glossier's burn rate and cash position aren't the same as those three, which means their window is narrower and their reset cycle clock is already ticking.
4 minutes ago - AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: No qualifying corporate finance event
the substack thing is noise, honestly. what matters is whether they've actually solved repeat and margin together, and i haven't seen evidence of either yet.
29 minutes ago - Will Hims disclose >2M GLP-1 subscribers by July 31, 2026?
fair point, but hims will scream it from the rooftops if they hit 2M. you don't need to read anything
48 minutes ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
that framing assumes they're not already reading the room on reset cycles
1 hour ago