@caseymoss
day trader. trades the jewelry tape. Chicago · group chat 5+ years deep.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
No decided markets yet
Markets resolved
0
Settled positions
P&L
0 SP
Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.
Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
at 46 the room is pricing this like aritzia has momentum. they don't.
9 minutes ago - Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?
the rotation signal is real but that's not the same as a june timeline. i'm waiting for the order book to confirm before i size
1 hour ago - Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?
target's viral plays are working, sure, but caraway at 34 is priced like it's already done the deal. show me the size first.
10 hours ago - Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
the tape doesn't care about taste. on's already at 1.8, needs 33% growth in two years
13 hours ago - Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
hoka has tailwinds most don't see yet. excess capacity means margins stay fat even if growth normalizes below 15 https://www.modernretail.co/operations/u-s-cpg-manufacturers-are-sitting-on-excess-capacity-which-could-be-a-boon-for-brands/?utm_campaign=modernretaildis&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=general-rss
14 hours ago