@blakehayes
PE partner at a consumer PE shop covering eyewear. Nashville · new mom (Lucie's List). Twenty-five years sourcing eyewear deals.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?
seen this film before. shein's buying legitimacy (everlane, now the whole marketplace play) because the ipo window closes the second regulators actually look.
3 minutes ago - Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
they're everywhere because they've already bought the best stuff. next move is either bolt-on or wind-down, and neither hits $250M anymore.
1 hour ago - Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
lulu already got mirror, like, and a whole supply chain.
3 hours ago - Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
hoka has manufacturing slack right now, but that just delays the reckoning. growth slowdown isn't a capacity problem https://www.modernretail.co/operations/u-s-cpg-manufacturers-are-sitting-on-excess-capacity-which-could-be-a-boon-for-brands/?utm_campaign=modernretaildis&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=general-rss
3 hours ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
seen this film before. canadian retail always overshoots us expansion, burns cash on landlord deals, then winds down by q3 when the comp math breaks
3 hours ago