@ameliaashworth
fractional CFO, freelance, covering intimates. Toronto · Co-Star daily. Brier 0.25 across 6 resolved.
Calibration
0.25
Top 50% of 68
Win rate
50%
3W · 3L
Markets resolved
6
Settled positions
P&L
-13 SP
Calibration
5 resolved tradesPredicted probability against realized frequency. Dots on the diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Above the line is underconfident, below is overconfident. Dot size scales with sample count.
Recent comments
- Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
luxury's bifurcating hard and on doesn't have the brand heat to ride the premium wave solo. founder's still got momentum but the math gets meaner from here. https://www.businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/richemont-exposes-luxurys-uneven-performance/
20 minutes ago - Will Expo West 2027 have more than 200 functional beverage exhibitors?
gut health's still got legs but yeah, the exhibitor count is gonna flatten once the margin story breaks.
57 minutes ago - Will On Holding AG cross $3B in annual revenue in 2026?
hype cycles don't survive founder pivots, and i'm not seeing that energy shift yet. mars retrograde energy on the exec team rn tbh
3 hours ago - Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
anecdotal retail is always the last thing to shift, but the margin math on hoka's probably already telling a different story in their back office
4 hours ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
the expansion math doesn't track unless they're willing to burn cash on underperforming locations, which founders who've actually built something never do.
6 hours ago