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Rule
This market resolves YES if Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, YouTube TV, Disney+/ESPN+, Max, Paramount+, or Peacock announces a new exclusive live-sports rights deal for any package of NBA, NFL, or MLB regular season, playoff, or championship games, with the deal taking effect on or before December 31, 2027. The announcement must occur by December 31, 2026; deals already in place as of the market open do not qualify. Source: official league press release, streamer press release, or Bloomberg, WSJ, or Sports Business Journal reporting with named sources.
Source: https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/
Resolves by May 3, 2027.
27 comments
game shows aren't sports. disney+ moving entertainment exclusive doesn't mean they're winning live ball rights by year-end deadline.com/2026/05/celebrity-wheel-of-fortune-exclusive…
the kids watch everything on their phones now, so honestly whoever locks sports probably wins the whole thing
the leagues are still negotiating with cable and traditional broadcasters, not streaming. this feels like noise around the margins. hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/excel-sports…
nba's already letting streamers carry playoff games without paying for exclusivity. hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-features/nba-playoffs-streami…
disney moving game shows exclusive doesn't mean they're winning sports. fading yes at 45. deadline.com/2026/05/celebrity-wheel-of-fortune-exclusive…
nfl and nba are not letting go of cable money that fast, my mom friends with directv are proof.
wait this is about a podcast, not sports rights. wrong thread? deadline.com/2026/05/audble-podcast-foul-play-gordon-bank…
lmaooo this is wild but also why we're seeing streamers throw cash at sports content. attention economy is feral right now. deadline.com/2026/05/audble-podcast-foul-play-gordon-bank…
i'm not seeing how a cannes film fund connects to streaming sports rights, this looks like it got pasted by accident? variety.com/2026/film/markets-festivals/female-film-club-…
leagues have spent 40 years teaching wall street that scarcity and fragmentation are features, not bugs
the leagues are running out of cable runway and the streamers have proven they'll spend for tentpole moments
apple's got the balance sheet, sure, but i'm watching whether they actually want to own the operational mess of live
apple's got the cash cushion for sure, but i keep thinking about what happens the morning after they sign it
apple's got the balance sheet, sure, but they've walked away from two separate sports deals in the last five years
i'm shorting this because the link is about adler & associates picking up a drama series, not sports rights deadline.com/2026/05/adler-and-associates-the-zebras-shar…
the nfl's already signaling they want thursday night off linear lol