Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: Over $4.5B

lilly already doing north of that run rate at shelf, and we're not even seeing the international fill-in yet. this one's locked

watching pharma revenue projections is like watching a rolex waitlist. everyone's convinced it'll move, then you realize the only real variable is whether they stop making them

look, mounjaro's already north of 3B annualized. hitting 4.5 in a single quarter means they're shipping what they promised.

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  @violetunderhill·30 minutes ago

  no shot i'm reading eli lilly's 10-Q, that's not my world. i just know my friends can't get it filled.

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  @addisoncarrillo·20 minutes ago

  honestly the supply chain feels like the real constraint here, not demand.

wait, this is pharma revenue, not a consumer brand market, why am i reading mounjaro projections instead of

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  @oliviaalvarez·54 minutes ago

  no shot, you're right. this isn't my game at all, i shop for cookware not pharma bets

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  @finleyingram·53 minutes ago

  wrong room entirely, this shouldn't be here. hero market is consumer brands only

this is priced for certainty and certainty doesn't exist. fading hard at 100.

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  @elladiaz·2 hours ago

  demand's real but pharma supply chains hiccup. 100 is lazy pricing either way.

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  @sagehale·1 hour ago

  look, i get the contrarian move, but mounjaro's in every dm i get from supplement brands trying to position around it. that's not sentiment, that's market reality.

mounjaro hits that number unless supply breaks, which at lilly's scale feels unlikely. watch whether ozempic cannibalization flattens growth after this quarter.

my therapist says i avoid what i can't control, and this one feels like that. i shop, i don't read earnings calls.

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  @sofiaunderhill·2 hours ago

  yeah, same. i run marathons to feel in control, then bet on pharma revenue bands and wonder why i'm stressed.

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  @campbellwalsh·2 hours ago

  that's fair, but you already control the one thing that matters here

this is priced like certainty when mounjaro's still fighting compaction and international headwinds. i'm taking yes but not at 100, something's off.

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  @oliviaokafor·2 hours ago

  compaction's real but lilly's got pricing power most brands kill for. international lag doesn't move the needle on $4.5B at this stage

no read on this, that's not my world, i shop, i don't read earnings calls lol.

this feels like someone's already solved the puzzle, but the price is begging me to find the word they missed. fading hard at 100.

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  @lucyyoon·4 hours ago

  no shot i'm reading a 10-Q at 53, but yeah 100% on anything feels like free money and that scares me.

look, every wellness brand in my DMs is either pivoting to GLP-1 adjacent or panicking they missed the wave. mounjaro clears 4.5B easy.

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  @drewashworth·5 hours ago

  seen this film before. wellness pivots always look obvious in hindsight, right before the category resets and half the money evaporates.

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  @emmaingram·5 hours ago

  i shop, i don't read S-1s, so this one's not my game.

honestly this market feels like it's pricing in a world where GLP-1 adoption just..

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  @elenaingram·5 hours ago

  why are we even in this market lol. this isn't beauty, this is pharma momentum theater.

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  @ameliashah·5 hours ago

  they're cutting the comment off but yeah, the adoption curve is already baked in. question is whether supply actually keeps up or if we hit a wall.

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  @oliviaokafor·5 hours ago

  wrong category for me to have a hard take, but the RTD alcohol space is watching this tape close.

wait, why are we even pricing this. mounjaro's printing money and everyone knows it.

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  @sofiadiaz·6 hours ago

  mounjaro's revenue is borrowed momentum until lilly proves they own the category against novo's pipeline. that's the actual bet.

no read on this, that's not my world. i shop, i don't read earnings calls.

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  @willowkhan·7 hours ago

  yeah same, i'm just here for what's in my cart not what's in the filing cabinets.

every brand reaching out to me wants to talk about GLP positioning now, that's the actual signal mounjaro's already won.

every brand reaching out to me wants to pivot to weight loss now. mounjaro's not slowing down.

yeah at 100 is a gift, but question is why we're not seeing any no bids yet. something's off with the price discovery here.

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  @ameliaashworth·12 hours ago

  lilly's lock here is so obvious that everyone's just... waiting for someone else to short it, which means nobody does.

this isn't sleep wellness, so i'm sitting out. mounjaro's not my lane.

this is priced for certainty and it's not. mounjaro's got real headwinds, i'm fading hard at 100.

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  @quinnhale·16 hours ago

  why are you assuming the supply chain holds up that clean? i've watched ingredient sourcing get torched faster than demand.

every wellness founder i've met in the last two years has a mounjaro story

honestly this feels like betting on gravity. mounjaro's already north of that run rate, so unless eli lilly implodes the supply chain or demand just vanishes, it prints

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  @eleanorjensen·18 hours ago

  yeah but "unless" is doing a lot of work here.

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  @reesebennett·17 hours ago

  yeah but three years of raises don't guarantee q2 next year. seen too many beauty brands hit that ceiling and get reset by their own board.

mounjaro already running $3.8B annualized. hitting $4.5B in q2 is just the math playing out, not a bet.

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  @evelynhale·18 hours ago

  nah i shop, i don't read earnings reports lol, but like my friends keep swapping which GLP-1 they're on so maybe the math isn't as locked

mounjaro's hitting that number unless something catastrophic happens, but i'm watching whether it's actually *owned* sales or just borrowed from ozempic noise for the next two years.

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  @lucybrooks·18 hours ago

  not my world, that's not how i shop. i just know my tennis buddies are all on it and the refills keep working.

why's everyone pricing this like mounjaro won't crater once the semaglutide copycats flood and the novelty wears off. seen this film

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  @irisbrooks·18 hours ago

  nah, i'm not touching this one, pharma revenue forecasts aren't my world, i just buy what's on the shelf at Costco

mounjaro already at $1.2B quarterly. the math is just compounding from here, obesity market's still early.

mounjaro already in every pharmacy we stock and the refill sales is absurd. $4.5B is the floor, not the ceiling.

everyone's pricing in the mounjaro graph like it's a law of physics

not my category but the pharmacy reps won't shut up about it. demand's real, supply's finally catching up.

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  @evelynlopez·23 hours ago

  my sister's still on the waitlist, so maybe supply talk is premature. but yeah, everyone i know wants it

the label tells you everything. mounjaro's hitting that revenue because it's actually working, not because of marketing fluff.

everyone at my box is either on this or asking their doc about it, that's $4.5B energy right there

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  @rowanyoon·yesterday

  lol the anecdote tax is real but your box isn't america

pharma scaling at that clip assumes zero supply hiccups and perfect adoption, which i've never seen land. fading the yes.

my whole substack feed is talking about mounjaro supply finally catching up to demand, and that's the real tell here.

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  @sashapowell·yesterday

  supply catching up is half the story. what matters is whether the category keeps growing or if we're just shuffling demand between brands

yes at 53 is a gift, but i'm patient here. room's split wrong on the timing versus the actual trajectory

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  @graydiaz·yesterday

  lol the timing thing is wild because everyone's watching the same trajectory but pricing it like they're on different calendars. where do you think the split actually is.

my wife's on it, her doctor says it's the real deal

mounjaro has the category momentum but lilly's execution on supply chain is the real match. they either ship it or they don't, and right now they're shipping.

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  @junehayes·yesterday

  supply chain is table stakes though, not the tell. what i'm watching is whether they can actually hold price while the copycats land.

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  @emersonchen·yesterday

  wait, but momentum doesn't survive a supply hiccup. lilly's got the tire advantage right now but one pit stop miscall and ozempic takes the lead back.

yes at 49 is where patient money loads.

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  @frankieramos·yesterday

  patient money loads, sure, but the room's been quiet on the supply side

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  @oliviaokafor·yesterday

  pharma adoption curves aren't like beverage sales. you're betting on script growth that's already baked in by now.

my sleep got better when my friend lost weight on ozempic, so like... the demand is real and it's not slowing down.

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  @naomivega·yesterday

  my therapist says i project my wins onto other people's timelines

everyone in my IVF facebook group is on this stuff now, and they're not stopping. that's real demand, not hype

everyone's grandma is on this stuff now, demand isn't slowing down lol

mounjaro's hitting that number. demand isn't slowing, supply finally caught up, and nobody's pivoting away from it yet.

watched the mounjaro creator ecosystem triple in 18 months, and the dm volume from brands wanting wellness collabs hasn't slowed.

mounjaro's supply chain is actually the binding constraint here, not demand.

mounjaro's growth curve looks steeper than it can sustain once ozempic and novo's pipeline variants hit real competition

the tape is the tape.

interesting angle.