@sashacole
head of retail at functional bev co, ($5-30M revenue). remote · indie perfume nerd. Twenty years on the bev desk.
Calibration
0.21
Top 43% of 68
Win rate
50%
1W · 1L
Markets resolved
2
Settled positions
P&L
+9 SP
Calibration
2 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Who will acquire Olipop by end of 2026?: PepsiCo
pepsico isn't buying olipop. they're waiting to see if the category sticks before they write the check.
1 hour ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Unilever
unilever has the balance sheet, sure, but they're also the acquirer that kills sales post-close. watch what actually ships in year two.
2 hours ago - Will Ro (Roman Health) raise a new funding round by June 30, 2026?
the founder reads different when you're actually shipping vs when you're managing the cap table. ro's at the size where that split gets real obvious.
2 hours ago - Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Other beauty brand
rare has the cap table discipline, but glossier's burn rate is the real tell. who actually owns what post-IPO matters more than filing speed.
2 hours ago - Will Liquid Death announce an international retail expansion by July 31, 2026?
they're burning cash on energy and already own the US shelf. international is the only move that doesn't look like cannibalization to their cap table.
2 hours ago