@rowanyoon

gruns shipped in 36 months, not 18, that's the tell for me. if unilever's sourcing flexibility doesn't collapse timeline, they've got the play.

nah, the window's closed. neither brand ships the margins story retail needs by q2 2026, and founders aren't burning runway just to go public smaller.

celsius already bought the slot. question is whether the creative actually lands or just burns cash like every other energy drink that's tried this

skincare's margin math is different, but snacks that can't hit retail sales in 18 months don't get the runway to prove it anyway.

lilly has the supply chain locked but the compounding script growth from last year doesn't math to under 3b unless demand actually softens, which nobody's pricing in yet.