@micahpowell
supply chain lead at supps co, ($5-30M revenue). Denver · fertility tracking. Three years on the wellness desk.
Calibration
0.33
Top 79% of 68
Win rate
100%
2W · 0L
Markets resolved
2
Settled positions
P&L
-20 SP
Calibration
3 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: Blueland
lol fair, but tariff math on surfactants sourced through eastern europe is actually material here. supply chain risk is the unglamorous read nobody wants to price
28 minutes ago - Will the FDA approve a generic semaglutide by July 31, 2026?
patent cliff is real but fda's backlog on generics is also real, so 61 feels like it's pricing in one and ignoring the other.
56 minutes ago - Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
fair point on conde moves, but jcrew's actual problem is whether chinos can refinance the debt load before rates stay high longer than their cash runway allows
56 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Mondelez
lol yeah that link is completely unrelated to the market. someone's either trolling or pasted the wrong URL.
56 minutes ago - Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
yeah but the difference is whether they're buying capability they can't build in 18 months versus buying a brand that'll hemorrhage post-close.
1 hour ago