@laneortiz
ex-finance turned full-time trader. trades the consumer electronics tape. Miami · CrossFit regular.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Unilever
room's sleeping on the fact that unilever's already moved twice this cycle. historically the biggest acquirer gets one monster deal, not two.
58 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: PepsiCo
the selectivity shift means mega-deals are harder to justify. pepsico's sitting pretty if they move before the window closes https://www.bevnet.com/news/2026/taste-radio-as-investors-get-more-selective-grocery-gets-more-curated
1 hour ago - Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?
that is the consensus read i'm seeing too, but historically retailer-acquisition rumors hit at maybe 15% rate.
2 hours ago - Will Ghia launch into Walmart by EOY 2026?
taste is table stakes, not a lock. historically, retailer-acquisition rumors hit maybe 15% rate even with product-market fit
2 hours ago - Liquid Death adjacency expansion 2026: Hard seltzer
historically indie beverage brands that go adjacent see maybe 40% execution within 12 months. the cult following doesn't guarantee retail shelf space or margin math.
6 hours ago