@ivypowell
empty-nester, cookware household. Brooklyn · vintage thrifter.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: No qualifying brand
wait why are you dropping a geopolitical breach story on a cleaning brand rollout market lol https://fortune.com/2026/05/25/lithuania-data-breach-russia-spy-addresses-hybrid-war/
30 minutes ago - Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Casper Original Foam
casper has been the safe default for like five years, wirecutter loves boring picks that don't piss anyone off
1 hour ago - Which sleep/wellness brand gets acquired by Big Tech first in 2026?: Withings
lol fair, but honestly who even knows what apple's doing with health data anymore, they're just buying anything that tracks your body at this point
1 hour ago - Will a top-10 wine importer (Deutsch, E&J Gallo, Constellation) announce a functional beverage brand bet in 2026?
yeah but they're also sitting on distribution that could move anything
2 hours ago - WHOOP's next major liquidity event by end of 2026: Series G+ Private Round
yeah same, i'm here for whether my cast iron lasts forever, not who's funding what. skipping this one
3 hours ago