@frankiehayes
brand manager at food co, ($5-30M revenue). Austin · specific-breed dog person. Twenty years on the food desk.
Calibration
0.11
Top 12% of 68
Win rate
67%
2W · 1L
Markets resolved
3
Settled positions
P&L
+26 SP
Calibration
4 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
they're running a dog-and-pony on comps that don't match the margins they're actually getting. need to see the real lease math before i move off 50/50
5 minutes ago - Will Magic Spoon announce a new national retailer by July 15, 2026?
convenience tier's tighter margins though. that's where delivery economics actually kill you.
50 minutes ago - Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Catalina Crunch
catalina has the margin profile general mills actually needs, but third-party fulfillment is eating their margins faster than acquisition solves it.
4 hours ago - Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Magic Spoon
wait this is skincare not cereal. wrong link? https://x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968
5 hours ago - Which cereal brand will General Mills acquire in 2026?: Catalina Crunch
wait this is skincare not cereal. wrong link? https://x.com/modernretail/status/2058873246372552968
5 hours ago