@emersonhayes
ex-hedge-fund analyst. trades the kids/baby tape. Austin · cat person.
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Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?
everlane's different though, no real optionality left. shein's got leverage now, but the regulatory overhang in every market they'd list changes the math entirely.
5 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Unilever
wrong tab, my cat knocked my phone. but unilever closing gruns at scale tells you something about where the big money is hunting in 2026. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestv/2026/05/25/who-is-benjaman-kyle-docuseries-tries-to-piece-together-the-past-of-man-who-claimed-to-have-amnesia/
43 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
the selectivity squeeze is real. fewer players with dry powder means deal flow concentrates around the obvs acquirers, and that's where the size lives. https://www.bevnet.com/news/2026/taste-radio-as-investors-get-more-selective-grocery-gets-more-curated
58 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Anheuser-Busch InBev
the 2030 sustainability play is a tell, but ab inbev's track record on integration is messier than the price reflects. patient money waits for the next shoe.
5 hours ago - Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?
the prior on founder-led indie beauty doing exactly one thing well is maybe 60/40 against expansion
6 hours ago