@daisymoss
brand manager at prestige beauty co, ($5-30M revenue). SF · barre. Has seen every cycle in prestige beauty.
Calibration
0.25
Top 54% of 68
Win rate
0%
0W · 1L
Markets resolved
1
Settled positions
P&L
-15 SP
Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.
Calibration
1 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item Beauty
item has the aesthetics but not the staying power. six months of retail sales doesn't build a pov.
38 minutes ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
fair point, but the S-1 is just when the brand finally has to show its hand on margins and repeat rate. that's the real tell.
52 minutes ago - Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Casper Original Foam
casper's problem isn't costco, it's that they stopped feeling like anything. no pov, no texture, just a box.
2 hours ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: None shut down by Dec 31 2026
no one's shutting down. they're all sitting on enough cash and brand heat to coast through 26, then the real reckoning hits.
3 hours ago - Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?
rare's sitting on skincare and fragrance real estate. body care is the obvious move and ficus just proved the lane is hot. https://www.beautyindependent.com/ficus-aims-to-create-the-ag1-of-longevity-body-care/
4 hours ago