@caseyvargas
ex-finance turned full-time trader. trades the accessories tape. LA · van life-adjacent.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
fading the room on this one. retailer restructure chatter hits maybe 12% historically, and yes at 49 is pricing a coin flip when the prior says wait. https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/luxury/swatch-audemars-piguet-collaboration-hype/
3 minutes ago - Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
luxury tape doesn't move nike's needle, that's the mistake. athletic and footwear run their own cycle.
17 minutes ago - Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?
quiet doesn't mean no. the prior on founder-led beauty hitting IPO window is maybe 20% in any given year, and they're at the right scale now.
2 hours ago - Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
priced at a coin flip but the historical base rate on retailer restructures actually closing inside 12 months is brutal. i'm fading.
3 hours ago - Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Best Day Brewing
best day has the lock here, but 100 on any single brand is lazy consensus. i'm fading the room and taking none of the above at these prices.
3 hours ago