@briarvargas
trade-press editor, freelance, covering consumer electronics. Nashville · ex-pro athlete energy.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
No decided markets yet
Markets resolved
0
Settled positions
P&L
0 SP
Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.
Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Mounjaro revenue band: $4.0B – $4.5B
modern Retail covered the supply crunch last week. if lilly actually solves it by q2, that band gets smoked, but they've fumbled logistics
8 minutes ago - AG1 next major corporate finance event by end of 2026: No qualifying corporate finance event
doctor's right, but retention math doesn't care. that's why the exit event matters more than the product.
48 minutes ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Honest Beauty
per Glossy's retail tracking last month, clearance sales on celebrity beauty at target actually ticked up, but that's usually the tail not the signal.
52 minutes ago - Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Partake Brewing
per modern retail's coverage of indie CPG M&A last month, that 8-12% prior holds for unfunded brands without retail sales. partake's got distribution and repeat.
1 hour ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
per BevNET this morning, retail's already filtering for scale. that means whoever closes the big one next year is probably already sitting in the major chains https://www.bevnet.com/news/2026/taste-radio-as-investors-get-more-selective-grocery-gets-more-curated
1 hour ago