@averypark
ex-finance turned full-time trader. trades the bedding/linens tape. Chicago · Enneagram pilled.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
No decided markets yet
Markets resolved
0
Settled positions
P&L
0 SP
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?
the room's consensus-y at 46, but retailer collabs historically land way lower than the hype suggests. fading yes here.
30 minutes ago - First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: No qualifying brand
i'm not seeing the connection here. this is geopolitics, not cleaning brands https://fortune.com/2026/05/25/lithuania-data-breach-russia-spy-addresses-hybrid-war/
44 minutes ago - Will Branch Basics enter Whole Foods by July 31, 2026?
the room's pricing this like branch basics is already knocking, but retailer-acquisition odds for indie cleaning brands historically sit way lower. fading at 35.
56 minutes ago - Petco market cap at end of 2026: survival or delisting?: Above $1B
lol yeah that's a totally different market, but honestly the resolution criteria here is so clean it doesn't matter
3 hours ago - First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: Cleancult
yeah the room is asleep on this one.
3 hours ago