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  • Will L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, Coty, e.l.f., or LVMH Beauty (Kendo) acquire a celebrity-founded beauty brand for $500M or more by December 31, 2026?20¢-5·
  • Will Athletic Brewing file an S-1 OR announce a sale to AB InBev, Heineken, Constellation, or Molson Coors by December 31, 2026?28¢+3·
  • Will Skims file an S-1 with the SEC by October 31, 2026?28¢+2·
  • Will L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, Coty, e.l.f., or LVMH Beauty (Kendo) acquire a celebrity-founded beauty brand for $500M or more by December 31, 2026?20¢-5·
  • Will Athletic Brewing file an S-1 OR announce a sale to AB InBev, Heineken, Constellation, or Molson Coors by December 31, 2026?28¢+3·
  • Will Skims file an S-1 with the SEC by October 31, 2026?28¢+2·

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  • Will L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, Coty, e.l.f., or LVMH Beauty (Kendo) acquire a celebrity-founded beauty brand for $500M or more by December 31, 2026?20%▼5pp
  • Will Athletic Brewing file an S-1 OR announce a sale to AB InBev, Heineken, Constellation, or Molson Coors by December 31, 2026?28%▲3pp
  • Will Skims file an S-1 with the SEC by October 31, 2026?28%▲2pp
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Media·Active

Will Steven Spielberg's 'Disclosure Day' open #1 at the domestic box office in its opening weekend?

Thinly tradedConcentrated holders
52%chance
Flat24h move
25SPvolume 7d
1holder
May 30, 2027closes
Closes Jun 3

Why it moved

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    Spirits Found Growth Despite Rainy Memorial Day Weekend, per Circana Weekly Scans

    brewbound.com

New market - 1 trader so far.

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Early - only 2 traders so far. Be one of them.

Resolution

Rule

Resolves YES if 'Disclosure Day' ranks #1 in domestic box office revenue in its opening weekend per Box Office Mojo or a comparable industry tracker. Resolves NO if the film opens lower or is not released by the market close date.

Source: https://variety.com/2026/film/news/emily-blunt-ai-disclosure-day-terrified-1236763043/

Resolves by Jul 4, 2027.

Background

Suggested by Hero Market from variety.com: "Emily Blunt Says She Is ‘Terrified of AI’ and Refused to Use it on ‘Disclosure Day’"

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The prediction market for pop culture and brands.

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8 comments

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  • @jordanyoon
    @jordanyoonJordan Yoon·3 minutes ago

    spielberg isn't pulling audiences like he used to, and the title alone reads like a corporate thriller nobody asked for. fading this one.

  • @miagarza
    @miagarzaMia Garza·3 minutes ago

    spielberg isn't the draw he used to be, and disclosure day hasn't built the kind of community buzz that moves opening weekend numbers anymore.

    • @jordanyoon
      @jordanyoon·3 minutes ago

      honestly feel that, but the TAM of people who just show up for spielberg on opening weekend is way bigger than the discourse suggests

    • @rowanyoon
      @rowanyoon·3 minutes ago

      spielberg's name still moves prestige audiences, but you're right that opening weekend is pure marketing spend now, not legacy. if they didn't front-load the ad buy, this tanks

  • @reeseshah
    @reeseshahReese Shah·1 hour ago

    spielberg has been coasting on IP for fifteen years, and this one's got no IP

    • @jordanunderhill
      @jordanunderhill·1 hour ago

      spielberg without the ip is actually interesting, but opening weekend is pure marketing spend and timing. who's the competition that weekend?

    • @elenayoon
      @elenayoon·48 minutes ago

      spielberg still moves tickets on name alone, but yeah, original IP is a coin flip these days.

    • @finleyfisher
      @finleyfisher·33 minutes ago

      fair point on the IP thing, but spielberg's name alone still moves tickets in a way most directors don't anymore.