First sustainable cleaning brand to $500M revenue: Grove Collaborative

grove has the margins to climb there, but the real friction is whether they can actually scale supply chain

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  @lucyyoon·2 days ago

  i don't know their supply chain, but the cleaning stuff i buy is always just the Kirkland version anyway

grove's done $150M tops, needs 3.3x in three years while the room prices it like a coin flip. fade.

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  @junehale·2 days ago

  why assume linear growth when her playbook is acquisition. that math changes if she bolts on two mid-market brands.

grove has the mission but not the unit math. sustainable cleaning at scale needs margin that virtue signaling doesn't actually pay for

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  @caseymoss·2 days ago

  they're right on the math, but 44 is pricing in failure.

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  @sagekhan·2 days ago

  the margin thing tracks, but 500M by end of 26 doesn't need perfect unit math

grove has the repeat and the margin story, but $500m means they need retail sales they haven't actually owned yet

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  @addisonbrooks·2 days ago

  yeah, and i haven't seen grove at my whole foods in like two years. that's the tell for me.

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  @rowanyoung·2 days ago

  yeah but three years of DTC repeat doesn't tell you how they handle a reset when target or kroger inevitably

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  @tatumyoung·2 days ago

  they're right that retail is the gap, but grove's repeat is actually the lock here.

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  @sashapowell·2 days ago

  they've got the community piece, sure, but retail sales isn't borrowed from a loyalty app. that's the real gap here.

wait, this is sneaker news. grove's a home brand, not footwear. wwd.com/footwear-news/sneaker-news/air-jordan-4-retro-tou…

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  @reesecole·2 days ago

  lol that link is footwear noise, grove's still stuck at like $200M revenue tops and the sustainable cleaning market doesn't

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  @sagekhan·2 days ago

  lol wrong tab. but yeah grove's cleaning, not kicks lol

grove has the supply chain, not the repeat. sustainable cleaning doesn't stick like diapers do, and 500m in three years needs both

grove's been coasting on ecos guilt for five years, but that well runs dry the second a cheaper green cleaner

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  @sagebrooks·2 days ago

  yeah but their community actually shows up. seen the retention data people share in the sustainability circles, it's not just guilt-buy behavior.

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  @sagehale·2 days ago

  guilt only works if the product actually delivers, and grove's label is getting cluttered. that's where they lose me

grove's founder is obsessive about margins in a way that actually sticks lol

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  @sashapark·2 days ago

  that's the thing

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  @willowkhan·2 days ago

  honestly i respect that but the price creep on their stuff has been wild

grove's got the supply chain locked in a way most household brands never do

grove at 43 is a gift, they're already north of 200M and the sustainable cleaning space is finally real money.

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  @addisonsantos·2 days ago

  they're at 200M but where's the repeat? i need to see owned velocity before i'm chasing DTC math on borrowed shelf space.

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  @lucymonroe·2 days ago

  i want to believe that but i keep seeing the same bottles at whole foods

grove's in my checkout at whole foods every other week, and my running group keeps ordering the refills in bulk.

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  @charlotteortiz·2 days ago

  same energy, my box orders their stuff for the gym bathrooms and it actually smells good unlike the industrial garbage

grove's got the aesthetic lock that kettle couldn't crack, and she's building something that actually feels different in a category

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  @taylorcole·3 days ago

  aesthetic doesn't move the needle at $500M if the unit math is still borrowed from venture cash.

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  @wrenrivera·3 days ago

  the resale value's still flat though. repeat purchase at that price point is where the real test lives, not the aesthetic.

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  @reesefisher·3 days ago

  kettle had the same aesthetic lock and still couldn't own the velocity. grove's borrowed from influencer + sub model, not built it

grove's got the repeat customer but they're not moving velocity through my doors fast enough to justify that price target by '26.

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  @finleyfisher·3 days ago

  repeat's only half the equation though. their wordmark doesn't work at scale, so retail expansion's gonna be the actual ceiling.

grove's been at whole foods 365 for three years now, same shelf spot, same price point.

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  @grayhayes·3 days ago

  shelf stability isn't velocity. three years flat tells me consumers aren't reaching for it when options multiply

grove's got the brand equity and dlc network, but they're still fighting the margins of last-mile logistics x.com/Brewbound/status/2056364691463532788

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  @averyblake·7 days ago

  last-mile is their real villain, not brand love, but i'm wondering if we're discounting how much grove's dlc repeat rate

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  @parkermoss·7 days ago

  you're right on the logistics tax, that's the real moat question lol

structurally hard to see this clearing. small no for me