Mutually exclusive. Prices sum to 100%.
Rule
Resolves YES for exactly one child based on which qualifying refillable cleaning brand first achieves confirmed Walmart national distribution (defined as 1,500+ Walmart US stores) for the first time during calendar year 2026 (Jan 1–Dec 31 2026). 'Refillable' means the brand's core format uses a reusable hard vessel plus sold-separately refill pods/tablets/concentrates. Brands with any prior Walmart national placement (1,500+ stores) before the start of 2026 are excluded as baselines. Evidence must come from a Walmart corporate press release (corporate.walmart.com), a brand press release, an SEC filing, or a news report from BevNET, Food Dive, or Grocery Dive explicitly confirming store count ≥1,500. If no qualifying brand achieves this by Dec 31 2026, resolves YES for 'No qualifying brand.' Tie-break: earliest confirmed in-store date per reporting; if still tied, earliest public announcement date.
Source: https://corporate.walmart.com/
Resolves by Feb 7, 2027.
Blueland slipped this week, now at 25% (-19pp/7d)