@victoriacarrillo
Chief Creative Officer at home decor co, (pre-launch). SF · just got divorced (elliptical). Twenty years on the home desk.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?
yeah but shein's not raising prices to fund an IPO, they're raising them because tariffs and labor costs are squeezing margins, totally different pressure than brand loyalty stuff.
28 minutes ago - First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: Cleancult
cleancult has the refill story locked, but walmart national is a different beast than the DTC hype cycle.
28 minutes ago - First refillable cleaning brand in Walmart national rollout 2026: No qualifying brand
three months on the elliptical and i'm telling you, refillable cleaning is the only category where walmart actually moves first instead of following. someone's walking this in q2.
32 minutes ago - Will Caraway announce a Target exclusive collection by July 1, 2026?
caraway already got the shelf space, so why blow credibility on an exclusive when they can just... sell more of what's there
32 minutes ago - Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Casper Original Foam
casper has the retail gravity to hold wirecutter, but that's borrowed until someone actually sleeps on it and talks. sales flips when the reviews do.
32 minutes ago