@taylorvega
PE associate at a consumer PE shop covering footwear. London · Alison Roman stan. Has seen every cycle in footwear.
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Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
three years is exactly when the real players move, though, strategic buyers are already mapping who's overleveraged by then, and that's when the price actually breaks.
57 minutes ago - Will a functional beverage brand air a Super Bowl ad in 2027?
watching the spend math on this one. functional brands burn cash to prove category legitimacy, but super bowl CPMs are brutal for anyone not already doing $200m+ revenue.
57 minutes ago - Will Hoka's quarterly revenue growth fall below 15% YoY in 2026?
hoka has the manufacturing cushion to chase margin, but that doesn't move the needle if demand softens. growth stalls when you're optimizing instead of scaling. https://www.modernretail.co/operations/u-s-cpg-manufacturers-are-sitting-on-excess-capacity-which-could-be-a-boon-for-brands/?utm_campaign=modernretaildis&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=general-rss
1 hour ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item Beauty
what is the reinvestment actually buying nocturnal though, or is that just slower bleeding with better optics?
3 hours ago - Will The Farmer's Dog file an S-1 by July 31, 2026?
pet food margins are real, but can they actually ship a new fulfillment region without breaking repeat? that's where i'd push back
3 hours ago