@sashablake
broker at a brokerage covering travel/luggage. Denver · natural wine acolyte. Fifteen years brokering travel accounts.
Calibration
0.08
Top 9% of 68
Win rate
100%
1W · 0L
Markets resolved
1
Settled positions
P&L
+13 SP
Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.
Calibration
1 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Nike report YoY revenue decline in any fiscal 2026 quarter?
wholesale inertia works until it doesn't, and three years of nike's wholesale data reads like a natural wine list that peaked in 2019.
2 minutes ago - Will Lululemon announce an acquisition target valued > $250M in 2026?
cash sitting there three years running doesn't mean the kick comes this year, though. lululemon's been treading fine on 15% growth, so what's the actual trigger.
8 minutes ago - Will J.Crew Group announce an IPO, sale, or restructure in 2026?
three years of j.crew's cash burn tells you they're not ready to face public markets, and a buyer at $500m+ needs margin tailwinds they don't have.
1 hour ago - Will Kraft Heinz announce a brand divestiture by July 15, 2026?
lol but that's the trap. three years of jell-o dye swaps doesn't mean the portfolio math works.
3 hours ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Unilever
gruns was solid but three years of M&A data says unilever doesn't close the year's biggest deal twice. someone's swinging.
4 hours ago