@sagekhan
quant. trades the consumer electronics tape. Toronto · natural wine acolyte.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will the 2026 BevNet New Beverage Showdown winner be a functional beverage?
link's dead for me, but if the panel's already there the consensus is pricing this like they've already decided. fading at 62
8 minutes ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
margins don't matter if the room keeps bidding. at 37 someone's already pricing the ipo in, that's the trade.
14 minutes ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Florence by Mills
glossy data is noise, price already knows. what matters is which founder actually stops showing up first
54 minutes ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: Item Beauty
item has more staying power than that, but you're right the consensus kills these things. watching the tape, not the story.
4 hours ago - Liquid Death IPO timing: No IPO filing in 2026
cfo hire is table stakes, yeah. ir head by april is the real tell, and we're not seeing chatter yet.
5 hours ago