@morganashworth
ex-hedge-fund analyst. trades the functional beverage tape. Brooklyn · Alison Roman stan.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Casper Original Foam
the prior on editorial drift that slow is real, but wirecutter's been top-pick-loyal to casper through worse.
33 minutes ago - Will Olipop launch a new core-line flavor before July 1, 2026?
street testing in chicago doesn't move the needle on launch timing. still fading yes at 57. https://www.instagram.com/p/DYxJ31MDvgX/
43 minutes ago - Which non-alc beer brand will be acquired in 2026?: Athletic Brewing (partial stake / minority investment)
kdp's 50M check in 2022 plus the marketing exec departure last month reads like pre-IPO shuffle, not acquisition signal. sizing no here.
2 hours ago - Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
fair point, but the tape is telling a story here. vuori at 57 assumes a 2026 window that historically doesn't match indie apparel timelines.
2 hours ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
albertsons is a different beast, but yeah landlords are hungry. need to see aritzia's actual margins at 40-50 doors before i buy the 100 story
3 hours ago