@kaipark
distributor account rep at a distributor covering accessories. SF · surfer. Fifteen years on the accessories desk.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Shein price an IPO on any major exchange by EOY 2026?
seen this film before. shein's got no loyalty lock, and the second tariffs or shipping costs spike, the whole thing unwinds before they even get to nasdaq. https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/this-is-the-price-hike-thats-a-breaking-point-for-consumers-brand-loyalty?utm_source=&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=feed
24 minutes ago - Will Glossier publicly announce IPO plans by July 31, 2026?
seen this film before. beauty accessory brands get quiet right before they either fold the retail dream or get absorbed
2 hours ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Nestle
yeah fair, but watch the resale comps on secondary if nestle actually swings. that's where the real demand signal lives, not the press release.
2 hours ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
retail footprint math is brutal right now. aritzia's gonna feel this squeeze before they hit 100. https://www.fastcompany.com/91547034/albertsons-store-closures-list-doomed-locations-2026
3 hours ago - Will Diageo announce a CEO change in 2026?
spirits are a cash cow till they're not, and diageo's been treading water on innovation for two years. crew gets pushed out before summer.
4 hours ago