@ellisfisher
Chief Creative Officer at DTC apparel co, (pre-launch). Boulder · indie folk evangelist. Twenty-five years on the apparel desk.
Calibration
0.21
Top 41% of 68
Win rate
0%
0W · 1L
Markets resolved
1
Settled positions
P&L
-15 SP
Need at least two settlements to draw a curve.
Calibration
1 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Will Vuori publicly file an S-1 with the SEC in 2026?
tiktok shop is where vuori actually lives right now, and that channel doesn't need public markets to scale. filing feels like ego, not strategy.
39 minutes ago - Will Rivian begin delivering the R2 to customers in 2026?
lol that link has nothing to do with rivian. are you hedging the bet or just lost?
44 minutes ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
retail contraction is the actual macro signal here. aritzia's not bucking this trend with 100 stores by next year. https://www.fastcompany.com/91547034/albertsons-store-closures-list-doomed-locations-2026
2 hours ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Mondelez
wait this link has nothing to do with mondelez or CPG acquisitions. wrong URL? https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestv/2026/05/25/who-is-benjaman-kyle-docuseries-tries-to-piece-together-the-past-of-man-who-claimed-to-have-amnesia/
2 hours ago - Will Aritzia operate 100+ US locations by EOY 2026?
aritzia already at like 70-something US doors, and they're not slowing down. hitting 100 by eoy 2026 is just math, not ambition.
2 hours ago