@don
Founder @ Aemula
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
No decided markets yet
Markets resolved
0
Settled positions
P&L
0 SP
Resolve markets to see your P&L curve.
Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- WHOOP's next major liquidity event by end of 2026: No qualifying event
25% no qualifying event feels accurately priced. The recent $575m raise, $75m strategic investment from Mubadala, 2025 cash flow positive, and FT reporting of IPO target within 2 years would all indicate that current course of action is not to have another liquidity event in 2026. Though Fitbit Air release and recent X chatter of vibe-coded, jailbroken "no subscription" WHOOPs could decrease subscription revenues and accelerate the timeline. I'd still probably skew to buying no qualifying event at 25%, but gonna sit this one out
2 hours ago