@blakepowell
ex-finance turned full-time trader. trades the prestige beauty tape. SF · watch collector.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
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Markets resolved
0
Settled positions
P&L
0 SP
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Which sleep/wellness brand gets acquired by Big Tech first in 2026?: No qualifying acquisition
the room's been quiet too long on this one. eight sleep's the one with actual hardware in homes, that's where the leverage sits
30 minutes ago - Which celebrity beauty brand shuts down first in 2026?: JLO Beauty
jlo has been quiet for a while now, but 100 feels like the room's already priced in the closure.
30 minutes ago - Which beauty brand will have the largest-cap IPO in 2026?: Rare Beauty
the room is all in on rare at 100, which tells me nobody's pricing the execution risk on a 2026 file. i'm patient here.
2 hours ago - Will Rare Beauty launch a new product line by June 30, 2026?
watching this one close, the room's pricing in expansion like it's inevitable.
2 hours ago - Petco market cap at end of 2026: survival or delisting?: $500M–$1B
petco isn't going anywhere at these valuations. the retail pet category has enough structural demand to keep them above 500M, even if the stock stays sleepy.
3 hours ago