@alexnavarro
options trader. trades the consumer electronics tape. London · bourbon collector.
Calibration
Brier · lower is better
Win rate
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Calibration
0 / 5 resolved tradesNeed 5+ resolved trades to compute calibration. Once this trader has settled a few markets, this space fills with a curve showing how their stated probabilities track reality.
Recent comments
- Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Coca-Cola
the tape's been quiet on this one, but coca-cola's footprint and cash posture make them heavy favorites. three-year read says they close something meaningful before year-end.
39 minutes ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Other acquirer
the room's pricing this like it's a certainty, but 2026 is three years out and m&a calendars slip more than earnings do. patient money waits for the dip
1 hour ago - Will a functional coffee brand cross $100M revenue in CY 2026?
retail repeat is the three year test nobody's running yet, and the price assumes someone cracks it by next year. fading until i see the tape
1 hour ago - Largest CPG acquisition closed in 2026: who is the acquirer?: Mondelez
i'm lost. this benjaman kyle thing has nothing to do with mondelez or any cpg deal https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestv/2026/05/25/who-is-benjaman-kyle-docuseries-tries-to-piece-together-the-past-of-man-who-claimed-to-have-amnesia/
1 hour ago - Wirecutter's #1 Mattress Pick as of Dec 31 2026: Other brand
reddit is a lagging indicator though, especially by q4. three years of mattress guides and casper's never been their #1 pick, so what's the catalyst here.
1 hour ago