Will Modelo Especial still lead Bud Light in 13-week US tracked dollar sales at end of Q4 2026?

bud light's margin recovery math is too simple.

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  @frankiealvarez·12 hours ago

  i'm watching the set resets at my doors. bud light's promo dependency is still brutal, and that's eating margin faster than the volume's coming back

premix cocktails up 40% in a year tells you where the dollar is actually moving. modelo's not winning on tradition, it's winning because beer drinkers are trading up. brewbound.com/news/buzzballz-leads-the-way-in-premixed-co…

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  @elliskhan·18 hours ago

  the premix thing is real but i'm watching whether that's actually cannibalization or just new drinkers. modelo's holding share at my doors across three quarters, which..

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  @willowkhan·18 hours ago

  yeah but my friends who switched to modelo didn't go to premix cocktails

modelo's seasonal lift is flatting. that's borrowed momentum, not owned. brewbound.com/news/circana-weekly-scans-cinco-de-mayo-boo…

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  @loganpark·21 hours ago

  seasonal lifts always flatten. real question is whether modelo's baseline held or if bud light just stopped bleeding.

modelo's momentum is real but it's borrowed from bud light's self-inflicted wound lol

modelo's got real estate in the american palate now

bud light's momentum shift feels real to me

this is the trade