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Beauty·Active

Will L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, Coty, e.l.f., or LVMH Beauty (Kendo) acquire a celebrity-founded beauty brand for $500M or more by December 31, 2026?

Thinly traded
35%chance
▼15.0pts7d move
—volume 7d
—holders
Dec 31, 2026closes
Closes May 31

Why it moved

More →
  1. 6
    Why the Estée Lauder and Puig Deal Collapsed

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  2. 5
    Estée Lauder Companies and Puig End M&A Talks

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  3. 4

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  4. 3
    Beauty’s New Challenger Conglomerate Has Always Been Here

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  5. 2
    Why Estée Lauder Companies and Puig Need Each Other

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  6. 1
    Estée Lauder’s Surprise Acquisition, Explained

    businessoffashion.com

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Resolution

YES if

L'Oréal Group, Estée Lauder Companies, Coty Inc., e.l.f. Beauty Inc., or LVMH (via Kendo or any Beauty division entity) publicly announces the acquisition of a celebrity-founded beauty brand - defined as a beauty brand whose primary public face and founding equity holder is a recognizable celebrity (musician, actor, athlete, model, social media personality) - for headline consideration of at least $500M (cash + stock + announced earnouts), by 2026-12-31. The acquirer must be one of the named five. Examples of qualifying targets if acquired: Fenty Beauty (Rihanna), Rare Beauty (Selena Gomez), Florence by Mills (Millie Bobby Brown), R.E.M. Beauty (Ariana Grande), Goop Beauty (Gwyneth Paltrow), Item Beauty (Addison Rae), Pattern (Tracee Ellis Ross), Honest Beauty (Jessica Alba). Acquisitions of non-celebrity-founded brands do NOT resolve YES.

Source: Acquirer press release + SEC 8-K + WSJ/Bloomberg/WWD/BoF

Resolves by Jan 7, 2027.

Background

The Rhode / e.l.f. deal (May 2024, $1B) reset the template. Sales beauty M&A is the genre. The question is who is next, who buys, and whether the price clears $500M.

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