Mutually exclusive. Prices sum to 100%.
Rule
Resolves to whichever named celebrity-founded beauty brand is FIRST acquired for headline consideration of $500M+ (cash + stock + announced earnouts) by any acquirer, between 2026-05-31 and 2026-12-31, inclusive. Confirmed via acquirer press release, target press release, SEC 8-K, or major business press (WSJ, Bloomberg, Axios, WWD, BoF). The acquirer does NOT need to be one of the top-5 conglomerates - any buyer counts. If no named brand is acquired at $500M+ by 2026-12-31, resolves to "None by Dec 31, 2026."
Source: Acquirer press release + SEC 8-K + WSJ/Bloomberg/WWD/BoF
Resolves by Jan 7, 2027.
The Rhode / e.l.f. deal (May 2024, ~$1B) reset the template. Strategic acquirers (L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, Coty, e.l.f., LVMH/Kendo) are actively scouting the next celebrity-founded brand to absorb. Operators have very different reads on which brand has the cleanest acquisition narrative.
