Mutually exclusive. Prices sum to 100%.
Rule
This market resolves based on which single sleep-related feature Apple publicly announces and ships (makes available to users) by December 31, 2026, as confirmed on Apple.com or the Apple Newsroom (https://www.apple.com/newsroom/). Only the FIRST qualifying major sleep feature shipped counts. Children resolve as follows: • 'AirPods sleep tracking' resolves YES if Apple releases an AirPods model or AirPods firmware update that includes on-device sleep stage or sleep quality tracking, with no qualifying Apple Watch or bedside feature shipping earlier. • 'Apple Watch sleep coaching / new sleep stages' resolves YES if Apple Watch (via watchOS update or new hardware) gains new sleep-stage detection, sleep coaching, or sleep-quality scoring beyond the existing sleep tracking, with no AirPods sleep feature shipping earlier. • 'Bedside / HomePod sleep mode' resolves YES if Apple ships a dedicated bedside or room-ambient sleep-tracking or sleep-environment mode for iPhone, HomePod, or a new accessory, with no AirPods or Apple Watch sleep feature shipping earlier. • 'No major sleep feature by Dec 31 2026' resolves YES if Apple ships none of the above by December 31, 2026. If multiple features launch on the same day, the child with highest novelty as judged by the Apple Newsroom headline takes precedence. Resolution deadline: December 31, 2026.
Source: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/
Resolves by Mar 19, 2027.
AirPods sleep tracking slipped this week, now at 25% (-40pp/7d)